Memory Market Update

John Gulling is Advanced MP's
Senior Product Manager and has 
18 years of experience in
the component distribution industry.

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Advanced MP Technology continues to keep you abreast and up-to-date on the volatile Memory Market.

Some recent news' headlines to start out Quarter 2:

Although spot prices of DRAM hit new lows at quarter-end and chip makers, who are about to release their first-quarter financial results, dumped inventory, we saw a firming up and a slight increase in DDR2 pricing last week. At the beginning of Q2, Elpida, Samsung, Hynix and Qimonda notified module makers to expect a 3-10% increase in DDR2 chip costs.  Already we have seen an impact on 1GB DDR2 667 prices, which have gone from $16.00-$17.00 to $16.50-$18.00 (Samsung on the higher end and Micron much higher).  Below is a recent Reuters release regarding the above:

Samsung is considering a single-digit percentage increase in prices for memory chips in April.  "We think we have hit a bottom" in the memory market, an executive Vice President with Samsung said. Those comments come a day after Japanese rival Elpida Memory, Inc. said it aimed to raise the price of DRAM chips by 10-20% in April.

"The best time to buy Memory was 1Q08 and we believe the war in the DRAM industry is already over, with Samsung being the winner."

With DDR2 prices near rock bottom and losses on NAND Flash, Samsung will re-focus on SDRAM lines and start mass-producing on their new .95nm process, which should reduce their costs by a third.  I expect to see a further drop in already low SDR pricing.

The EU has lifted duties on financially troubled Hynix Ram product retroactive from January 1st of this year. The duty still is in effect for incoming product to the United States at approximately 46%.  Hynix is again on the selling block, looking for suitors, like Micron, Qimonda or Korean giant, the Hanwha Group.

MOVE OVER SO-DIMM, the new Memory standard is here; welcome the new Micro-DIMM.

Micro-DIMMs are made for the new ultra-small PC class. That is where Micro-DIMMs come in. They are not vastly smaller than SO-DIMMs, probably about a third less area.

Below is the Micro-DIMM with a standard SO-DIMM:




Below are some numbers to crunch as of close-of-business April 18, 2008.  I see the following spot market pricing:

Note: all below are Chip prices.

DDR2:
512Mb 667 64x8 is at $1.15
512Mb 533 64x8 is at $1.05
(Micron is over $2.25on both)

DDR:
512Mb 400 64x8 is at $2.15
(Micron is at $2.75)
256Mb 400 32x8 is at $1.25
(Micron is at $2.05)
256Mb 400 16x16 is at $0.80-$1.20
(Micron is at $2.00)

SDRAM:
512Mb 133 32x16 is at $7.50-$9.75
256Mb 133 16x16 is at $1.25-$2.35
64Mb   133   4x16 is at $0.50-$1.15

(Note: low-end is Samsung, Hynix, Elpida, Qimonda, while the higher end reflects Micron).